Conference Agenda
Registration Desk Opens
Our staff will be on hand from 1pm to greet you, give you your name tag and the delegate gift bag. We will have English and Chinese language speakers available, and a few other languages besides!
Welcome Reception
The welcome reception is a great chance to renew old friendships and start new ones. Plenty of time to mingle with the other delegates, discuss the upcoming sessions, book some meetings or simply circulate among the crowd - and all in time for you to make a dinner reservation at any of Shanghai’s fabulous restaurants.
Registration Desk Opens
Conference room opens.
Official Welcome
Monte will welcome the delegates and introduce the VIPs. Monte calls Paul onto the stage. Paul will introduce the safety and other rules. Paul will then introduce Jason Martins. Jason will introduce the Mission Possible Partnership and welcome delegates on behalf of all the VIPs.
VIP Speaker: Jason Martins, Mission Possible Partnership.
Keynote Speaker: Miles Prosser, Secretary General, International Aluminum institute
Green Aluminum Session | The Roadmap to Success
Many companies around the world are working diligently on improving their emissions and reducing their footprint on the environment. But there’s still a long way to go, with technology, capital investment, and sourcing of renewable energy all presenting major hurdles.
Meantime, the message from various marketing departments is confusing. Some companies use Scope 1 and 2 in their definitions, some include Scope 3, while others don’t tell us what they have used. The reality is that many major consumers of primary aluminum are demanding zero or near-zero carbon in their aluminum, by the end of the next decade. We can’t get there if we can’t even agree on where we are at today. Let’s look at how to move from where we are at today, to where we need to be.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
How can we work together better as an industry to increase our chances of meeting our climate goals?
What can we learn from each other? What best practices have companies employed in their efforts to improve their performance?
Coffee Break
Downstream and Recycling Session | Where the metal meets the consumer.
Primary aluminum production is a steady-state continuous operation - the hard work comes when it is time to convert that raw metal into a form that can be used to make everything from beer cans to bikes to boats. The Downstream sector is where the metal meets the customer. At the same time, recycling still has a long way to go, especially in countries such as China. Recycling needs a two-way improvement; increasing the volume of metal going back into furnaces, and finding new ways to use secondary metal in primary metal applications.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
How real is the demand for zero or near-zero aluminum?
How much flexibility is there in the downstream sector to meet the climate challenges?
How much more can be done to replace primary metal with secondary aluminum, even in the tightest specifications?
Can we rely on China to increase the rate of recycling and the use of secondary metal?
Where are we at in terms of meeting the long-term goal of boosting global recycling?
Lunch
The “Light and Power” Session | New Energy vehicles and solar energy outlook for aluminum demand
The future for aluminum demand lies in two emerging sectors, namely New Energy Vehicles and Solar panels. New Energy Vehicles is a category which includes cars running on lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel and other new technologies. In this session, AZ Global Consulting’s senior analyst Kiki Xi will examine the history, development and trends for the two sectors.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
What is the outlook for the new energy vehicle in terms of production and sales?
What developments and technologies could boost or delay the roll out of new energy vehicles?
How will the recent moves by the EU to crack down on Chinese EV imports affect the market?
What is happening with the evolution on the cost of solar panels, and their relative efficiency?
Solar panels must come with a battery solution to flatten the differences between supply and demand. What is happening with the development of battery technology?
The China Outbound Session | Will CBAM and other regulations really work?
CBAM is just the latest of many hurdles China’s aluminum market has to navigate in the world.The European Union has announced its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which aims to provide protection for European companies that meet carbon and climate goals. Around 80% of China’s primary aluminum is made using coal-energy, meaning that most Chinese metal is likely to be caught in the CBAM filter.
Meantime, Chinese traders and producers also have to grapple with the American “Clean Competition Act”, Section 232 tariffs and many other tariff and trade barriers in other countries. And what if China goes ahead with smelters in Indonesia and elsewhere - will that metal be treated as “Chinese”?
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
How will CBAM work? What are the key dates and milestones?
How effective will it be?
Europe makes very little low-carbon aluminum. What’s the point if the rules help nobody?
What’s the difference between CBAM and other countries’ rules and regulations?
What if China builds smelters in Indonesia and elsewhere - how will these rules be applied?
Will China continue to find export markets, or will the many tariffs and duties cause China to reduce exports?
Market Dynamics Session | What’s the outlook for supply and demand in the next 2-3 years?
The real world situation for aluminum is not as healthy as it could be. Inflation and rising interest rates are dampening consumption in many economies. China as the largest single consumer of aluminum is struggling to return to the heady levels of the previous decade.
Meantime, on the supply side, China will soon run into the government-imposed 45-million tonne capacity cap. What happens next? Will China build capacity overseas? Does it even make sense to do so? Apart from Alba Line 7, what else is out there that will add to future supply?
This paper will summarize and draw on the previous two papers, and the session will conclude with a panel discussion.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
What’s going to happen to metal prices in the longer term?
Will we see China embarking on massive investment in smelters outside China?
Coffee Break
Bauxite and Alumina Session | The rise and rise of resource nationalism.
Will Indonesia succeed where it failed in 2015? Will other countries such as Guinea follow the Indonesia example? How will China as the dominant buyer respond? Besides, we need to convert the world’s alumina sources to renewable energy. Alumina is a major contributor to emissions - we need to remove or reduce alumina’s emissions if we are to get to zero or near-zero aluminum. How are we tracking? Meantime, China has introduced an Alumina Futures market - has this been successful? We are delighted to announce that the Shanghai Futures Exchange will join us in this panel to discuss their new contract/market.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
What is China doing to convert from coal-based alumina?
Will the Chinese government set rules for alumina as it has for primary metal?
Who is leading in the drive to green alumina, and where are the next wins coming from?
Has China’s new Alumina futures market been successful?
Gala Dinner
An unforgettable evening of networking, fine dining, and entertainment.
Registration Desk Opens
Conference room opens.
Keynote speaker: Stephan Broek, Kensington Technologies
Carbon Capture as part of the Roadmap to Success to Decarbonize Primary Aluminium Smelting
We are delighted to bring Stephan Broek as a Special Guest Speaker for the conference. Stephan is very well known throughout the global aluminum industry after his many years leading Hatch, especially in their Environmental Protection activities.
In today’s paper, Stephan will bring us some insights into Carbon Capture and Storage as a solution to decarbonising our industry. This technology is promoted by some, but questioned in other quarters. Can Carbon Capture really work? Doesn’t it just move the carbon to somewhere else? What sort of investment in capital and time will be needed? Is it a solution for everyone?
We will have time at the end of Stephan’s paper for some questions from the floor.
Petcoke and carbon Session | Is the outlook so black?
AZ Global has been monitoring global supply of anode grade petcoke since 2015. We published our first study in 2015, and our second in 2018. Our third study, looking at anode coke supply to the year 2027 was published this year.
Following the price shocks of 2022, anode coke prices have retreated to more normal levels. Does that mean the worst is over? Will China lift its production of the black material that is vital to the electrolysis process? What about the global trade of petcoke - that seems to have settled down too. Are the world’s refineries lifting their output of cokes? Won’t the introduction of the inert anode remove some demand for petcoke?
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
What is the outlook for anode grade petcoke?
Will coke prices return to the bad old days of 2022?
Has the international trade of petcoke settled down and matured?
Coffee Break
Technology Session | Technology, the inert anode and the real world
We are getting closer to the self-imposed date for the inert anode, but no closer when it comes to a general understanding of its role in the future of our industry. Even when the technology is declared as being available for sale, who is going to step up? Longer term, if we are going to achieve zero or near-zero aluminum, the inert anode needs to be a major part of the world’s primary aluminum production, but it’s very hard to see how that is going to happen.
Meantime, many companies are finding innovative ways to reduce emissions, and improve energy and operational efficiency. We will hear some great stories of breakthroughs and programs that have worked in today’s real world.
Key Questions to be addressed in this session
Is CCS the answer for more companies?
What are the other technologies we should be looking at for improving our environmental footprint?
What will happen once the inert anode is commercialized?